Indices Split After Midterms: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Rise as Dow Falls, Futures Whipsaw
United States stock indices split on Tuesday, November 4, 2026, as investors digested midterm election results and a stronger-than-expected jobs report, and the split carried straight into Wednesday's futures trading — which first crashed, then flipped higher. The S&P 500 rose 27.52 points, or 0.4%, to close at 7,568.92, ending a three-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 25,372.01 as chip stocks rallied. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went the other way, falling 0.4% to 51,786.72, weighed down by Apple's post-earnings drop. Treasury yields climbed at the same time, with the 10-year par yield closing at 4.95%, up 4 basis points from 4.91%, and the 2-year at 4.61%, leaving the 2s10s spread at 34 basis points — while the Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00%.
The economic data behind the move gave traders something genuinely new. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job openings of 7.52 million in September, up 333,000 from August and above the 7.15 million consensus — a four-month high, with hiring also increasing, a sign of mild improvement in a labor market that remains sluggish. That print set up the week's two remaining data tests: Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, forecast at 68,000 against a prior 90,000, and Friday's official jobs report, forecast at around 63,000–65,000. The market's split personality showed in the single stocks too: Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter results beating expectations, with revenue up 45% and data center sales nearly doubling, and rose more than 7% in premarket trading; Apple beat on earnings per share ($2.10 vs $1.99 consensus) and revenue ($114.5 billion vs $113.4 billion expected), yet its shares fell nearly 2% on disappointment over its gross margin outlook and slowing services growth.
Wednesday's whipsaw: crash, then recovery
Overnight, the midterm count drove a sharp reversal in sentiment. Early Wednesday, US stock futures fell hard as Democrats led the midterm count in both chambers: Dow futures dropped at least 479 points to an intraday low of 51,416, Nasdaq 100 futures fell at least 690 points to 27,615.75, and S&P 500 futures dropped more than 1% to 7,490. Asian markets slid with them — Japan's Nikkei fell 4.4% as chip equipment maker Advantest, memory maker Kioxia and SoftBank came under heavy selling, and South Korea's Kospi fell 3.3% — on fears of tougher scrutiny of AI data centers. Then sentiment flipped: by the European morning, Nasdaq futures had reversed to rise 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Dow futures added 0.3%, with Treasurys strengthening and the 10-year yield easing back around 4.93%. Oil nudged higher, with Brent around $104.10 a barrel, and Asian markets outside Japan recovered, with Shanghai up 2.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 1.45%. The honest read is that the market has not decided what the midterm result means for policy — it has only decided, twice in twelve hours, to react strongly. Until the House outcome is settled and the first policy signals arrive, expect the whipsaw to continue, with Friday's jobs report the next hard data point that could break the tie. TradingView reported the futures reversal as Treasurys strengthened. For context, see the previous indices split on Election Day and the JOLTS preview for Midterm Tuesday. Follow market coverage on the Zimbuck News page and in the Zimbuck Market News group. Join the conversation on Zimbuck to say which data point you are watching hardest — ADP, Friday's payrolls, or the next midterm policy signal.
FAQ
Q: How did the indices close on Tuesday, November 4, 2026? A: S&P 500 up 0.4% to 7,568.92, Nasdaq up 0.8% to 25,372.01, Dow down 0.4% to 51,786.72.
Q: Why did the Dow fall while the Nasdaq rose? A: Apple fell nearly 2% after earnings despite beating estimates, dragging the Dow, while chip stocks led by AMD's strong results lifted the Nasdaq.
Q: What did the JOLTS report show? A: September job openings of 7.52 million, up 333,000 from August and above the 7.15 million consensus — a four-month high.
Q: What happened to futures on Wednesday? A: They first crashed — Dow futures -479 points, Nasdaq 100 -690 points, S&P 500 -1%+ — then flipped higher (+0.2% to +0.3%) as Treasurys strengthened.
Q: How did Asian markets react? A: Japan's Nikkei fell 4.4% and South Korea's Kospi 3.3% on AI/data-center scrutiny fears, while Shanghai later rose 2.2% and Hong Kong 1.45%.
Q: What data comes next? A: Wednesday's ADP payrolls (forecast 68,000) and Friday's official jobs report (forecast around 63,000–65,000), plus the ISM services index and September trade balance.
This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
