Election Day on Wall Street: Stocks Edge Up at the Open as Apple and Palantir Drag Tech Deeper Into Correction

Americans went to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake — and Wall Street opened the session the way it has traded for weeks: cautiously higher on the headline indices, weaker underneath. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.6% as of 9:33 a.m. in New York, clawing back earlier losses. But the opening prints told a more divided story: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 182.38 points at the open, while the S&P 500 gained 0.11% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.38%. One market, three directions — and tech, once again, was the problem child.

The tech correction is now official. The Nasdaq-100 closed more than 10% below its all-time closing high on Monday, confirming that the tech-heavy index has entered a correction, as investors grow wary of Big Tech's soaring artificial-intelligence spending with little evidence yet of adequate returns. Monday's session set the tone: the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.07% to 25,164.32, while the Dow rose 213.67 points, or 0.41%, to 51,983.98. That rotation — out of tech, into the Dow's old-economy names — is the defining trade of this autumn, and Election Day did nothing to reverse it.

Apple and Palantir: good enough is no longer good enough. Two earnings stories captured the mood. Apple fell 3.9% in premarket trading after warning that the cost of memory chips would continue to rise, pressuring its holiday-quarter gross margin — and after its latest quarterly results disappointed on several metrics, including revenue in China. Palantir fell 7.7% despite forecasting revenue above estimates for the final three months of the year after topping third-quarter expectations. When a beat still sells off nearly 8%, the market is telling you the bar was not the consensus estimate — it was perfection. Nvidia climbed 1.4% after four straight down sessions, AMD gained 1.8% ahead of its earnings after the bell, and Marvell and Intel rose 1.4% and 2.1% — a partial chip rebound, but not a reversal. Oracle fell 8% after saying it plans to sell $10 billion in common stock and $10 billion in bonds to fund its AI buildout — the market is now charging companies for AI spending, not cheering it.

What the election could — and could not — do. Polymarket pricing put roughly a 95% probability on Democrats taking the House and about a 77% chance of a Senate victory, pointing to a potential sweep. JPMorgan's scenario analysis put the Democratic sweep at 66% probability, a divided Congress (Democratic House, Republican Senate) at 26%, and Republicans retaining both chambers at just 7%. Its market calls were modest in every case: a Democratic sweep would push the S&P 500 down about 0.5% on Wednesday (its fuller scenario range: -0.25% to +0.50%), a divided Congress would lift it 0.5% to 1%, and a Republican hold would lift it 1% to 1.25%. In other words, the election matters at the margin — but no outcome in JPMorgan's model moves the market more than about a percent. UBS made the same point more bluntly: AI investment, economic growth, corporate earnings, inflation and interest rates remain the primary drivers, and midterms are not a binary market event.

The history that bulls keep quoting. History, however, has generally favoured stocks after midterms. Morgan Stanley found large-cap equities gained about 15% on a market-cap-weighted basis and 16% on an equal-weighted basis in the six months after midterms since 1982, and roughly 22% over the subsequent year. A CNBC analysis found the S&P 500 was higher one year after all 11 midterms from 1982 through 2022, with an average one-year gain of 13.7% — and, in the words of The Sevens Report's Tom Essaye, since 1950 the S&P 500 has never been lower 12 months after a midterm election. JPMorgan's own research found an average 9.2% return in midterm election years since 1937, with an average 6.6% gain in the fourth quarter of midterm years. The catch for 2026: this year's pre-election drawdown has been shallow — the S&P 500's deepest drop this midterm year is just 9%, against an average 18% peak-to-trough fall since 1942 — and valuations are stretched, with the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio at 40.7, above the previous midterm-year high of 33.8 in October 1998. Post-midterm rallies usually follow pain; this year, the pain has been concentrated in tech, not the broad market.

The earnings backdrop underneath it all. About 70% of the S&P 500's market capitalisation has now reported third-quarter results, with 84% beating earnings estimates and 13% missing. That is a strong beat rate — and yet the market is falling, because guidance, margins and AI spending matter more than the beat itself this season. Positioning adds another wrinkle: investors added a further $9.6 billion in net new short positions in S&P 500 futures last week, bringing overall positioning close to neutral, according to Citigroup — the market is hedged, not euphoric. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.92%, and the 30-year yield climbed 1 basis point to 5.29%, as voting began and investors weighed a busy data calendar plus renewed Middle East tensions.

What to watch next. Wednesday's open will be the market's first verdict on the actual results, not the polls — and JPMorgan warns a decisive sweep by either party could unsettle stocks more than a divided outcome. After that, the calendar takes over: AMD's earnings after Tuesday's bell, then Friday's payrolls report, which decides the December Fed case. For stock investors, the Election Day lesson is simple: the vote removes one uncertainty, but it does not fix the AI-spending question, the margin question, or the valuation question. Those three will decide whether the post-midterm history repeats — or whether 2026 becomes the exception.

FAQ
How did stocks open on Election Day? Mixed: S&P 500 +0.2% and Nasdaq 100 +0.6% by 9:33 a.m., but the Dow fell 182 points at the open.
Is tech in a correction? Yes — the Nasdaq-100 closed more than 10% below its all-time closing high on Monday, confirming a correction.
Why did Apple and Palantir fall? Apple fell 3.9% premarket on a margin warning tied to rising memory-chip costs; Palantir fell 7.7% despite beating expectations and guiding above estimates.
What does JPMorgan expect from each election outcome? A Democratic sweep: S&P 500 about -0.5% Wednesday; divided Congress: +0.5% to +1%; Republican hold: +1% to +1.25%.
Does history favour stocks after midterms? Yes — the S&P 500 was higher one year after all 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022 (average +13.7%), and never lower 12 months after a midterm since 1950.
What matters more than the election? Earnings guidance, AI-spending returns, margins, inflation, interest rates — and Friday's payrolls report.

Read more on Zimbuck: the midterms-and-payrolls week-ahead preview is here, https://zimbuck.com/blogs/938/Midterms-Today-Payrolls-Friday-Five-Market-Tests-That-Will-Decide-Stocks-Week , and the Pfizer/Shopify earnings read is here, https://zimbuck.com/blogs/993/Pfizer-Shopify-Earnings — plus the Zimbuck News page at https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews and discussion at https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews . The Election Day open story this article is based on is here: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/11/03/stocks-inch-up-election-ai-risks-weigh-outlook . This is market news and general information only, not financial advice. Join Zimbuck at https://zimbuck.com to follow more stock market coverage.