AMD's Data-Center Surge Lifts AI Stocks as S&P 500 Futures Dip on Midterm Wait
The AI trade found its footing again on Tuesday — thanks to a chipmaker, not a speech. Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter revenue up 45% year over year, with data-center revenue nearly doubling, and shares rose about 8% after hours. The rebound carried the Nasdaq up 0.83% to 25,372.01 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.63% to 10,600.40, while the S&P 500 gained 0.37% to 7,568.92 and the Dow fell 0.38% to 51,786.72. It was, in one session, a reminder that the AI story is still being decided by earnings — and that the next verdict arrives one company at a time.
AMD's detail is what matters. The data-center business now accounts for 64% of total revenue, up from 47% in the year-ago period, and CEO Lisa Su said server revenue will double year over year in 2027. That forecast, plus market-beating third-quarter results, offered a direct counterpoint to the fear that set in last week, when Intel's weak outlook sent its shares down 29% in a single day — its worst single day since the 1970s — and revived doubts about what the AI build-out costs. AMD's numbers did not settle the AI-spending debate, but they shifted it: the question is no longer whether AI demand exists, it is which suppliers capture it and at what margin.
The midterm shadow over Wednesday
Wednesday opened under a different cloud. US stock futures slid as investors awaited midterm election results, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.9%, while the dollar softened. Early results included Democrat Jon Ossoff's re-election in Georgia and Senator Mark Warner's re-election in Virginia, but control of Congress — and with it, the path for tax, spending and regulation — remained undecided as Asian markets inched higher on beaten-down tech finding favour after AMD's results.
The scenario analysis behind the wait is stark. Evercore ISI's midterm analysis put a divided Congress, an undisputed election and no military escalation in Iran at a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,750, a little less than 3% above Monday's close — its unchanged base case. Its most bullish scenario, Republicans holding both chambers with an undisputed vote and Iran negotiating, would put the index at 8,400 by year-end, or 11.4% above Monday's close. Its worst case — a Democratic sweep triggering a disputed election plus military escalation in Iran — would take the S&P 500 down more than 10% to 6,800, wiping out almost all of its roughly 11% gain so far this year. Evercore stresses the worst case is not its base case, and its broader recommendation is to buy any dip — but the range itself explains why futures are cautious this morning.
What the data says underneath
Underneath the politics, the macro tape is mixed but not weak. ISM Manufacturing for November 3 came in at 55.5 (expected 54.5), with new orders at 55.5, while the prices subindex stayed extremely high at 75.2 (prior 77.9). JOLTS job openings were reported at 7 million-plus, and the week's calendar still holds the ADP employment report and ISM services on Wednesday and the October jobs report on Friday, with consensus expecting 55,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.2%. Add the S&P 500's own history — it fell in both September and October for only the 17th time since 1950, closing September at 7,651.54 and October at 7,580.07, yet in 12 of the 16 past cases it rose over November and December, with a median two-month gain of about 3.7% — and the setup is clear: earnings are doing the lifting, politics is doing the weighing, and Friday's jobs data may tip the balance.
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FAQ
What did AMD report? Third-quarter revenue up 45% year over year, data-center revenue nearly doubled, now 64% of total revenue (47% a year ago), shares up about 8% after hours.
What did AMD forecast? CEO Lisa Su said server revenue will double year over year in 2027, with faster-than-expected growth as data-center sales surge.
How did the indexes close on Tuesday? Nasdaq +0.83% to 25,372.01, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.63% to 10,600.40, S&P 500 +0.37% to 7,568.92, Dow -0.38% to 51,786.72.
Why did futures dip on Wednesday? Investors awaited midterm election results, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.9%, while the dollar softened.
What is Evercore's base case for year-end? A divided Congress, undisputed election and no Iran escalation puts the S&P 500 at 7,750 by year-end; its bullish case is 8,400 and its worst case is 6,800.
This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
