Bitcoin Rebounds Above $78,000 After a $75,736 Midterm Dip — Levels, Flows and What Friday's Payrolls Decide
Bitcoin spent Wednesday morning falling on election headlines — then spent the afternoon climbing back. After dipping below $76,000 early on November 4 as reports showed Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress, Bitcoin rebounded to trade near $77,890–$78,550, recovering from an intraday low of $75,736 to a session high of $78,164, a bounce of about $2,428. The move was broad: 217 of 260 tracked coins rose in 24 hours, Ether held around $2,274–$2,300, and the Fear & Greed Index improved to 34 from 26 — still fearful, but no longer panicked. The question for traders is whether this is a real turn or just a relief bounce inside a downtrend that still has Bitcoin below its key moving averages.
The session's shape tells the story. Sellers first pushed price below the 100-day simple moving average at $76,850 and through the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $76,066, with the wick reaching $75,736 — about $330 below that Fib line — before buyers stepped in. From that low, price climbed back above both the Fib level and the 100-day average on 6.46K BTC of volume. Momentum has improved but has not turned: the daily RSI (14) reads about 40.7–40.8, just under its signal line and still below the 50 midpoint, so the bounce has not produced a bullish crossover. Bitcoin is also still below its 20-day average at $80,195 and its 50-day average at $82,013, and above only its 7-day average at $77,653. In plain terms, the short-term dip found buyers, but the medium-term trend has not yet flipped.
Key levels: Immediate support: $76,516, then $75,590 (classic daily pivots); $76,440 on the Binance spot data set; the 0.382 Fib at $76,066 and the day's low at $75,736 below that. Pivot / decision zone: $77,278 (classic pivot); the 100-day SMA at $76,850 must hold for the bounce to keep its footing. Immediate resistance: $78,204, then $78,965 (classic pivots); $78,677 on the intraday signal view; $78,867 on the spot data set. Bigger resistance: $79,500–$80,500 (KuCoin daily range), the 0.236 Fib around $80,403, the $80,000 round number, and the 50-day SMA at $82,013. Deeper support if the bounce fails: the 200-day SMA at $73,219, the 0.5 Fib near $72,561, and strong support at $74,874.
Why the bounce happened — and why flows still argue caution. The fundamental trigger was political, not technical. Bitcoin fell as midterm results came in, then recovered as traders judged the outcome a manageable policy setback rather than a fundamental threat — one analyst noted that Bitcoin has seen 20% to 50% corrections in the last three midterm election years, putting this dip in a familiar seasonal pattern. Markus Thielen of 10x Research pointed to oversold daily stochastics and named $82,000 as the next target if the recovery holds, while Bitget Wallet's research lead placed the broader resistance zone at $80,000–$82,000 and called the speed of the rebound constructive. The crowd, notably, is still bearish: Santiment's bullish-to-bearish comment ratio is back near 0.51, down from about 1.8 on October 20 — a contrarian setup where a move back above $79,000 while sentiment stays negative would itself be a bullish signal.
Flows, however, are still leaning the other way. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $515 million in outflows in the first two days of November, and the KuCoin daily report puts Bitcoin at $77,451.90 (+0.84%) with Ether at $2,274.79 (+0.96%), the Nasdaq at 25,372.01 (+0.83%) and the S&P 500 at 7,568.96 (+0.37%) as of November 4, 00:00 UTC — a reminder that crypto is rebounding alongside equities, not apart from them. If Bitcoin holds above $78,000 while ETF redemptions continue, other buyers are absorbing that supply, which would be genuinely encouraging. If it cannot, the bounce risks becoming another lower high in a sequence that started above $80,000. Binance futures funding at 0.0100% reads neutral, so leveraged traders are not yet piling into either side. The earlier V-shaped rebound from the same session, linked in the References below, and the support-and-resistance learning guide linked there, frame the same levels from different angles.
What to watch into Friday. Three triggers decide the next leg. First, the levels themselves: a daily close above $78,677 would print a bullish engulfing candle and open the path toward $80,321, while a close below the $76,066 Fib level and the $75,736 low would undo the rebound and put the 200-day average back in focus. Second, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report — the first official jobs data traders have had to trade on in this cycle — which, together with the midterm policy signal hardening into actual legislation, will decide whether the dollar's weakness holds or reverses. Third, ETF flows: a turn from outflows to inflows would confirm that institutional sellers are done, while another week of redemptions would cap any rally near $80,000–$82,000. Until one of those triggers fires, the honest read is a market that found a floor at $75,736 but has not yet reclaimed its trend. Follow price analysis on the Zimbuck News page and in the Zimbuck Market News group. Join the conversation on Zimbuck to say whether Bitcoin holds $78,000 into Friday's payrolls — or gives the bounce back.
FAQ: What happened to Bitcoin on November 4? It dipped below $76,000 to an intraday low of $75,736 on midterm election headlines, then rebounded to about $77,890–$78,550, a bounce of roughly $2,428 to a $78,164 high. What are the key levels now? Support at $76,516 then $75,590 (pivots), with the 100-day SMA at $76,850 and the 0.382 Fib at $76,066 underneath; resistance at $78,204 then $78,965, with $78,677 as the intraday pivot and $80,000–$82,000 as the bigger zone. Is momentum bullish yet? Not yet — daily RSI is about 40.7–40.8, below its signal line and the 50 midpoint, and Bitcoin remains below its 20-day ($80,195) and 50-day ($82,013) averages. What about ETF flows? US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $515 million in outflows in the first two days of November — a headwind the rebound must overcome, and a turn to inflows would be the confirmation signal. What decides the next move? A daily close above $78,677 (bullish) or below $76,066/$75,736 (bearish), Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, and whether ETF flows turn positive.
This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
