Bitcoin Holds $78,000 as Binance Flows Turn Positive — but $1.16 Billion of ETF Selling Still Hangs Over the Rally
Bitcoin is holding above $78,000 on November 4, and the most encouraging sign is not the price itself — it is where the money is moving. Binance, the exchange at the centre of the largest hack in crypto history just six days ago, is now reporting net inflows of around $2.3 billion after several days of heavy withdrawals, according to Proactive reporting via Yahoo Finance. That is a genuine change of direction: customers who rushed for the exits after $6.3 billion was drained from Binance's hot wallets on October 29 are, on balance, putting money back in. At the same time, though, a very different set of investors is still selling. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded $1.16 billion of net outflows across three sessions, and that tension — exchange customers returning while ETF holders leave — is the story of this market right now.
The ETF numbers deserve to be stated plainly, because they are large. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, $398.6 million on November 2 and $115.6 million on November 3, according to Farside Investors data compiled across the reporting. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $405.3 million of the November 2 outflow alone, its largest daily outflow since June 26, though the fund remains about $3.7 billion net positive for the year. The three-session total is the largest for the ETF complex since the end of June, and it has pushed net flows for 2026 marginally negative, at about negative $60 million. The pace of selling is slowing — $115.6 million on November 3 is far smaller than $643.2 million on October 30 —
but three straight days of redemptions is still three straight days, and Ether ETFs have now stretched their own outflow streak to seven sessions, with $85 million leaving on November 3.
What the chain itself says: a cost-basis test, not a capitulation
On-chain data from Bitfinex's November 4 analysis frames the sell-off as a test of a well-known level rather than a collapse. After the midterm election results, Bitcoin dipped to the short-term holder cost basis, currently at $75,839 — the average price at which coins held for less than 155 days last moved — before recovering back into the $77,000 to $80,000 support band. Supply acquired between $77,000 and $80,000 rose to 1.28 million BTC on November 4 from 1.05 million on November 1, while supply acquired between $81,000 and $84,000 fell by 92,000 BTC to 1.12 million over the same period. In plain terms, coins changed hands lower: some holders sold into the dip, and new buyers picked those coins up in the $77,000–$80,000 zone.
Two other on-chain readings cut in opposite directions, and both matter. Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest rose to 701,548 BTC on November 3, its highest since September 22 — traders are putting leveraged positions back on, which can amplify moves in either direction. But the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being distributed at a loss or a profit, has been below 1 for six consecutive sessions, reaching 0.994 on November 4 — recent buyers are, on aggregate, selling at a small loss. Net realised loss across all holders deepened to 24,600 BTC on November 4 from 13,000 BTC on November 2, the largest since August 7. That is pain, but it is not panic at the scale of a capitulation event — and the fact that price held the $75,839 cost basis while realised losses rose suggests buyers absorbed that selling rather than being overwhelmed by it.
Two flows, two verdicts — and what would settle the argument
Put the two flows side by side and the market's split personality becomes clear. Exchange flows say confidence is returning: Binance's roughly $2.3 billion of net inflows, after outflows that peaked above $6 billion on the first full day after reopening, suggest retail and trading customers are willing to trust the platform again once withdrawals work normally. ETF flows say institutions are not yet convinced: $1.16 billion out in three sessions, with 2026 net flows now marginally negative, suggests professional allocators are still de-risking after the hack and the midterm uncertainty. Neither flow alone tells the truth; together they describe a market in transition, with different investor types moving in opposite directions.
Bitfinex's own test for what comes next is refreshingly concrete: a single positive ETF print would prove little, but three consecutive inflow days of a size comparable to the recent outflows would be the first real evidence that institutional demand has returned, as set out in the Bitfinex analysis at https://blog.bitfinex.com/uncategorized/etf-outflows-and-spot-selling-test-bitcoins-recovery/ . Until then, its base case has Bitcoin trading between the $75,839 short-term holder cost basis and the $80,200 upper bound of the option-implied range into Friday's expiry, with rallies toward $81,300 meeting selling. Options pricing backs up that range: 30-day implied volatility stood at 38.7 on the morning of November 4, below its October 31 close of 40, giving a one-standard-deviation range into Friday's expiry of about $75,500 to $80,200. For traders, the levels to watch are therefore simple: hold $75,839 and the recovery has a floor; clear $80,000 and the ETF sellers start to look wrong; lose $75,500 and the cost-basis test has failed. Related coverage includes the rebound-levels story at https://zimbuck.com/blogs/1138/Bitcoin-Rebounds-Above-78-000-After-a-75-736-Midterm and the ETF-sell versus Strategy-buy story at https://zimbuck.com/blogs/1036/Bitcoin-Holds-Near-76-900-as-ETF-Investors-Sell-and . Follow Bitcoin coverage on the Zimbuck News page at https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews and in the Zimbuck Market News group at https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews . Join the conversation on Zimbuck at https://zimbuck.com to say which flow you trust more — exchange inflows or ETF outflows.
FAQ
Why is Bitcoin holding $78,000 if ETFs are selling? Because different investors are moving in opposite directions: Binance reports about $2.3 billion of net inflows as exchange customers return, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.16 billion over three sessions. Price is balancing the two flows.
How big were the ETF outflows? $643.2 million on October 30, $398.6 million on November 2 and $115.6 million on November 3 — $1.16 billion combined, the largest three-session total since the end of June, pushing 2026 net flows marginally negative at about -$60 million.
What is the short-term holder cost basis? The average price at which coins held for less than 155 days last moved — currently $75,839. Bitcoin dipped to it after the midterm results and recovered, which analysts read as a successful test of that support.
What does futures open interest at 701,548 BTC mean? It is the highest since September 22 and shows leveraged traders are re-entering. That can amplify moves both ways, so it is a volatility signal, not a direction signal.
What would confirm institutional demand has returned? Three consecutive ETF inflow days of a size comparable to the recent outflows, according to Bitfinex's analysis — a single positive day would prove little.
This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
