Oil Slides for a Fourth Straight Day as Brent Falls Below $100 — While Gold Holds Its Biggest Rally Since August

Oil and gold are telling two opposite stories this week — and both stories start with the same event. Oil has now fallen for a fourth straight session, with Brent crude sliding below $100 a barrel, while gold is holding its biggest rally since August above $4,100 an ounce.

The split is the market's verdict on the US midterm elections and what they mean for the war with Iran.

Oil's fourth day down

Brent futures fell 97 cents, or 1.03%, to $93.65 a barrel on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.14, or 1.29%, to $86.98. That follows a brutal Wednesday session in which both benchmarks tumbled more than 8% to settle at their lowest since August 31 — Brent settled at $94.62, down 8.7%, and WTI fell 8.3%.

The trigger was political. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, and investors read the result as pressure for a quicker end to the US-Israeli war on Iran. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike Iran, and Vice President Vance wrote on X that the war was the reason for the Republicans' heavy losses. Traders are now pricing in a diplomatic path — and possibly an end to the conflict — rather than escalation.

Cheaper oil changes the inflation picture fast. Energy costs were one of the forces keeping inflation fears alive and pushing the Federal Reserve toward more rate hikes. With Brent down nearly a fifth from its war-spike highs, that pressure is easing.

Gold's biggest day since August

While oil sank, gold soared. Spot gold jumped about 3.3% on Wednesday to around $4,061 an ounce — its biggest daily gain since August and its first close above $4,000 since October 29. On Thursday it extended the move, trading as high as $4,146.92 and holding near $4,139, its highest since October 22. Silver joined in, rallying 5.1% to $52.29 on Wednesday and holding near $53 on Thursday.

The rally is a recovery story as much as a breakout. Gold had dropped to $3,875 on October 30 — its lowest since October 2025 — after a week in which five central banks decided policy and two Fed hawks called for more hikes. From that low, gold is now up 7.18%. Even so, it remains about 27% below its intraday record of roughly $5,595 set on January 29, 2026.

Three forces are pushing gold higher at once:

• A weaker dollar. The midterm result sent the dollar to its lowest in more than a month, and gold — priced in dollars — gets cheaper for buyers in other currencies when the dollar falls.
• Falling yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to around 4.83%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.
• Cheaper oil. Lower crude pulls down inflation expectations, which in turn reduces pressure on the Fed to keep hiking — and a Fed that stops hiking is historically good for gold.

That last link is the core of Citi's commodities thesis. Max Layton, the bank's global head of commodities research, has argued that much lower oil prices could prompt the Fed to shift from hiking to cutting rates, reviving gold's rally. Citi has set a 0–3 month target of $4,500 an ounce and a 6–12 month target of $5,000, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the conflict de-escalates by year-end. Markets, for now, still price about an 83% chance of a December Fed hike, according to CME FedWatch — so the Citi call is a bet against the current consensus, not a reflection of it.

The numbers that matter

• Brent crude: $93.65 (-1.03% Thursday; -8.7% Wednesday; lowest since August 31)
• WTI crude: $86.98 (-1.29% Thursday; -8.3% Wednesday)
• Spot gold: ~$4,139 (Thursday high $4,146.92; Wednesday +3.3% to $4,061, biggest gain since August)
• Silver: ~$53 (+5.1% Wednesday to $52.29)
• Dollar: lowest in more than a month after the midterm sweep
• 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.83%

Technically, gold has cleared $3,936 — its June low — and is now testing the 50-day moving average. The next resistance sits at $4,150, then the round $4,200 level, with a Fibonacci extension target near $4,250. On the downside, $4,100 is the breakout level to hold, and a close below the 50-day moving average near $3,980 would break the recovery structure.

What comes next

The next big catalyst is Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report. A soft jobs number would strengthen the case that the Fed can stop hiking — or even start cutting — which would likely extend gold's run and keep oil under pressure. A hot number would do the opposite, reviving hike fears and the dollar with them.

For now, the market's message is clear: de-escalation, not escalation, is what drives gold higher — and it is what is crushing oil. That is a reversal of the war trade that dominated February, when the US-Iran war erupted and energy prices spiked. As we covered when gold first broke back above $4,100 (https://zimbuck.com/blogs/1235/Gold-Breaks-Past-4-100-as-the-Dollar-Hits-a), the metal's recovery has been building for days; Thursday's extension above $4,100 confirms the momentum is real, not a one-day spike.

Traders in the Zimbuck Market News group (https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews) are watching the payrolls print closely, and the Zimbuck News page (https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews) will carry the reaction as it lands. Join the conversation on Zimbuck (https://zimbuck.com) — the finance social platform for traders and investors.

FAQ

Why is oil falling?

Hopes of US-Iran de-escalation after the Democrats swept Congress in the midterms, with President Trump playing down Iran strikes. Brent fell more than 8% on Wednesday and is down for a fourth straight session.

Why is gold rising at the same time?

A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields and cheaper oil all help gold. Lower oil eases inflation fears, which reduces pressure on the Fed to keep hiking rates.

What are Citi's gold targets?

$4,500 an ounce in 0–3 months and $5,000 in 6–12 months, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the conflict de-escalates by year-end.

What is the next catalyst?

Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report (November 6). A soft number would support gold and pressure oil; a hot number would revive hike fears.

Is gold back at its record high?

No. Gold is still about 27% below its intraday record of roughly $5,595 set on January 29, 2026.

This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.