EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1200 as the Dollar Firms Before Today's US Jobs Report
The euro is holding near 1.1200 against the US dollar on Friday morning, November 6, 2026 — and the next few hours will decide whether it stays there. The US October jobs report lands at 13:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) today, and after one of the wildest weeks in forex this year, every major currency pair is waiting on that single release.
EUR/USD slipped below 1.1200 in the European morning, trading near 1.1215, after reaching almost 1.1300 during Wednesday's dollar sell-off. The pair has now given back part of that midweek recovery as the dollar gathers strength again — the US Dollar Index is rising toward 102.00 after closing marginally higher on Thursday.
What the jobs report is expected to show
Economists expect the US economy to have added about 65,000 jobs in October, up from only 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1%.
The context matters as much as the headline:
- September payrolls: just 29,000 — a weak print that raised questions about the labour market
- ADP private payrolls: about 86,000 new private-sector jobs in October
- Initial jobless claims: fell to 189,000, below expectations of around 196,000
- 12-month average payroll gain: down to just 41,000 a month — a cooling trend
- Annual wage growth: slowing to around 3%
The labour market is cooling, but it is not collapsing. That ambiguity is exactly why today's number moves markets: a print at or below 30,000 could deepen the dollar sell-off, while a surprise above 80,000 would support the greenback and push EUR/USD lower.
Why the dollar is firming again
The dollar's recovery this week has been driven by two forces. First, stronger-than-expected employment-related figures — the jobless claims beat and the ADP number — gave the greenback a footing. Second, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has kept rate-hike expectations alive: markets still expect a 25-basis-point hike in December, even though the probability of that hike fell from around 86% to about 64% after Thursday's stock-market rout.
The Fed's last move was a 25-basis-point hike in September, taking the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Traders had started to price out further tightening as the Nasdaq plunged 5.5% on Thursday — but the dollar's bounce on Friday morning shows the market is not ready to call the hiking cycle over.
On the other side of the pair, the European Central Bank is also sounding hawkish. Eurozone inflation remains elevated at 4.0%, and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said this week that the central bank will probably raise borrowing costs again next month. That hawkish stance is one reason EUR/USD's downside has been limited even as the dollar firms.
Volatility is priced in
Options markets are bracing for a sharp move. The overnight implied move for USD/JPY stands at 141 pips — around 64% above its 20-day average daily range — while EUR/USD's implied move of 75 pips is also elevated. Traders are not expecting a quiet Friday.
Technically, EUR/USD formed two shooting-star candles this week, with Thursday's inside day closing slightly bearish — a pattern that hints at a possible swing high below 1.1300. The pair is struggling to complete a bullish reversal, and today's jobs data will decide the direction.
What to watch at 13:30 GMT
Three scenarios frame the release:
- Weak jobs (30,000 or fewer): the dollar sell-off resumes, EUR/USD builds on its weekly gains and retests 1.1300. Markets would start to dismiss a January hike too.
- In line (around 65,000): a muted reaction, with attention shifting to the wage figures and the unemployment rate. A steady 4.2% keeps the December hike on the table.
- Strong jobs (above 80,000): the dollar rallies, EUR/USD corrects lower, and December hike expectations firm up again.
Canada also releases its October jobs data at the same time — economists expect unemployment to hold at 6.5% with a net change of 13,600 jobs — which could add volatility to USD/CAD as well.
For EUR/USD traders, the message is simple: do not trade the rumour today, trade the number — and size positions for a market that is explicitly pricing a big move. Follow the Zimbuck News page and join the discussion in the Zimbuck Market News group. Related reading on Zimbuck: How to Read a Forex Economic Calendar: CPI, NFP and Interest-Rate Decisions Explained and What Is GDP? How Growth Is Measured and Why Markets Move on It.
FAQ
What time is the US jobs report released today?
The October Employment Situation report is released at 13:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) on Friday, November 6, 2026, by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What is the consensus for nonfarm payrolls?
Economists expect about 65,000 jobs added in October, up from 29,000 in September, with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%.
Why does NFP move EUR/USD so much?
The jobs report shapes Federal Reserve rate expectations. Strong jobs support the dollar and push EUR/USD down; weak jobs do the opposite.
What is the key level for EUR/USD?
Resistance sits near 1.1300, the high of Wednesday's dollar sell-off. Support is around 1.1200, where the pair is trading ahead of the release.
The dollar has found its footing — but today's jobs number decides whether that footing holds or gives way. Join the conversation on Zimbuck — the finance social platform for traders and investors: https://zimbuck.com
This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
