Bitcoin Tests $76,300 as ETF Inflows Cool — But October Flows Just Turned Positive
Bitcoin spent Friday, October 30, doing something it has done repeatedly this week: falling through a round number, then fighting to get back above it. The largest cryptocurrency traded around $78,629 on Friday after bouncing from an intraday low of $76,301, still below the $80,000 level it lost earlier in the week. The session matters less for the single-day move than for what sits underneath it — a major exchange security incident still being unwound, a three-day run of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows that suddenly cooled, and an October flow balance that, against the odds, has just flipped back into positive territory.
Start with the price action. Bitcoin fell to a six-week low area on October 30, with one market read putting the day's low at $77,646 on the initial Binance-linked sell-off and CoinCentral reporting an intraday low of $76,301 with a recovery toward $78,629. Technical levels frame the fight: immediate resistance near $80,000, with a supply zone between $81,500 and $82,500 above it, and support around $74,900 to $76,000, where an ascending trendline from June meets horizontal support at $74,886. Another technical read puts the next support at $76,600, followed by $75,200, with resistance at $78,100 and then $79,300. The message from both is the same: Bitcoin is holding above its long-term average — one model puts the 200-day average near $73,159 — but it is trading below its short- and medium-term averages, with momentum indicators still favouring sellers. A 2.05 percent daily fall to about $78,583 in one October 30 model, and a Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading of 51 for a second straight day, describe a market that is neutral on sentiment and negative on momentum — not panicked, but not yet turning.
The Binance incident is the backdrop, not the whole story. Binance estimates about $6.3 billion in assets were affected by the security breach, with about $3 billion frozen with industry partners, while Chainalysis confirmed at least $5.9 billion was stolen and investigations continue. That overhang explains part of the week's selling, and it explains why traders are watching exchange flows so closely. But the cleaner institutional signal is the ETF data, and there the story has two halves. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows for three straight trading days through October 28: $110.3 million on October 26, $176 million on October 27, and $137.3 million on October 28, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in $136 million of the October 28 total. That three-session run, about $424 million in total, pulled October's cumulative flow back into net inflows of about $111 million, after roughly $774 million left in the last two trading days of the previous week. Then came the second half: preliminary figures for October 29 show only about $17.2 million of inflows, a sharp cooling that may still be revised. The streak did not break, but it nearly stalled — and in a week dominated by a $6.3 billion exchange incident, a near-stall reads very differently from a $137 million day.
Ethereum tells the other side of the flow story. While Bitcoin ETFs were pulling October back into positive territory, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $21 million of outflows on the day, pushing October's cumulative net outflows to $1.35 billion. Ether slid to as low as $2,210, down 4.20 percent over 24 hours in the same coverage. The divergence matters because it breaks a simple "crypto is back" narrative: institutional money returned to Bitcoin this week while continuing to leave Ethereum. Add the Federal Reserve's October 28 decision to hold rates at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, with two members voting for a hike, and the macro picture is equally mixed — steady policy, no new support for risk assets, and a Fed chair warning that inflation remains above the 2 percent target. One analyst view in the October 30 coverage puts it plainly: with no new direction from the Fed, Bitcoin's short-term moves are more likely to be driven by Treasury yields, the dollar's direction, and appetite for risk assets.
On-chain data adds a quieter counterweight to the price weakness. Glassnode's October 26 report showed entity-adjusted transfer volume up 25.9 percent to $5.5 billion, even as daily active addresses fell 2.2 percent to about 615,200. CoinGlass data put exchange reserves at about 3.36 million BTC on October 28, up 0.16 percent in 24 hours — not a rush for the exits. None of that cancels out a fall to $76,301, but it does argue against reading one session as capitulation: the network kept moving value, reserves did not drain, and ETF buyers, however thin on October 29, were still net buyers for a fourth session in spirit. The risk is that the thin October 29 print is the start of a new outflow run rather than a pause. The October 22–23 outflow of $772 million is a fresh reminder of how fast the flow story can reverse — it wiped out more than $1 billion of the prior week's inflows in two sessions.
What to watch next, in order. First, the revised October 29 ETF figure and the October 30 print: does the inflow streak hold at all, or does the cooling become an outflow? Second, the $76,600 and $74,886 support levels — a daily close below the lower one opens the path toward the $73,159 long-term average. Third, any further Binance recovery or freeze updates, which would remove the week's biggest overhang. And fourth, whether Ethereum's $1.35 billion October outflow keeps widening while Bitcoin's flow stays positive, or whether the two converge again. October's flow balance flipped positive this week. Whether it stays positive is now a day-by-day question, and the answer will come from flows, not from headlines.
FAQ: What did Bitcoin do on October 30? It traded around $78,629 after bouncing from an intraday low of $76,301, remaining below $80,000, with support near $74,886–$76,600 and resistance near $80,000 and $81,500–$82,500. What happened to Bitcoin ETF flows this week? Inflows of $110.3 million on October 26, $176 million on October 27 and $137.3 million on October 28 — about $424 million over three sessions — turning October's cumulative flow to about $111 million net inflows; preliminary October 29 inflows were only about $17.2 million and may be revised. What did the Fed do? It held rates at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on October 28, with two members voting for a hike, offering no new support for risk assets. What is the Binance context? Binance estimates about $6.3 billion in assets were affected by its security breach, with about $3 billion frozen; Chainalysis confirmed at least $5.9 billion stolen, with investigations ongoing. How did Ethereum compare? Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $21 million of outflows on the day, taking October's cumulative net outflows to $1.35 billion, while ether fell to as low as $2,210. What does the on-chain data show? Entity-adjusted transfer volume rose 25.9 percent to $5.5 billion (Glassnode, October 26), daily active addresses fell 2.2 percent to about 615,200, and exchange reserves were about 3.36 million BTC on October 28. Is this the same as blog 436 or blog 447? No. Blog 436 covered the earlier fall below $77,000 and blog 447 covered the ETF inflow streak itself. This blog covers the October 30 session: the $76,301 low, the cooling October 29 inflow print, and October's flow balance flipping positive.
Related reading:
https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews
https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews
https://zimbuck.com/blogs/287/Bitcoin-s-81-000-Standoff-14-942-BTC-Leave-Exchanges
This is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
