Euro Closes October at $1.1160, Down 1.51% for the Month — Its Second Straight Monthly Loss

The euro ended October 2026 exactly where the month's trend said it would: lower. EUR/USD closed October 30 at $1.1160, down 0.19 percent on the day, according to Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, and down 1.51 percent for the month. It was the euro's second straight monthly loss against the dollar, and it came after the pair touched its lowest level since May 2025 earlier in the week. October was not a crash for the euro. It was a slow, steady grind lower — and the month-end close confirms the grind won.

A month that never found its footing

The numbers tell the story in stages. On October 27, the euro hit a 52-week low of $1.1125. By the October 30 close at $1.1160, it stood just 0.31 percent above that low. The day's range ran from a low of $1.11360 to a high of $1.12148, and the pair failed again above $1.1215 — the same ceiling that capped its October 30 European-session rebound, when it traded around $1.1188, up 0.11 percent at that point, before the dollar clawed back its early losses. Each attempt to recover ended at the same place: a lower high, then another drift down.

The policy backdrop explains why buyers never took control. The Federal Reserve held its rate range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on October 28, and the European Central Bank held its key rate steady at 2.65 percent. With US rates higher and US third-quarter GDP growing at an annualised 3.4 percent — beating expectations of around 3.2 percent — the dollar kept its medium-term advantage. Strong US growth plus sticky inflation fears even strengthened the case, in market pricing, for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The euro, by contrast, had no equivalent catalyst: the ECB's hold came with a signal that higher bond yields had tightened financial conditions, which initially pushed traders to lower their expectations for a December ECB hike.

The dollar's month, in one index

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, ended October 30 around 101.86, edging lower by 0.02 percent on the day but up 0.39 percent for October — its second straight monthly gain. That symmetry matters: the dollar's second straight monthly rise is the mirror image of the euro's second straight monthly loss. October was a dollar month, and EUR/USD was simply where that trend showed up most clearly.

Elsewhere in foreign exchange, the same dollar resilience showed up in different ways. The yen strengthened to a high of 157.89 per dollar on October 30 after the Bank of Japan left its main rate unchanged at 1.25 percent while signalling a more hawkish phase, and the yen was set for a 0.11 percent gain in October. Sterling strengthened 0.14 percent to $1.3394. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.1 percent against the greenback to $0.7034. The euro's weakness, in other words, was not a universal dollar surge — it was euro-specific softness inside a mixed foreign-exchange day, which makes the 1.51 percent monthly loss more significant, not less.

The levels that decide November

Technically, EUR/USD enters November with a clear map. Support sits at 1.1115, with the October 27 low of 1.1125 just above it — a break below that zone opens the path toward levels not seen since May 2025 and earlier. Resistance sits at 1.1215 and 1.1260 on the daily chart, with a broader resistance zone at 1.12400 to 1.12800. The 20-period exponential moving average sits near 1.1223, and the pair held beneath it on October 30, keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone. The immediate test for euro bulls is therefore precise: reclaim 1.1215, then 1.1260, or accept that the downtrend from the October highs is still intact.

The fundamental calendar gives the pair its next chances to move. Germany's October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices came in at 2.8 percent year on year, below the 3.1 percent expected and down from 3.3 percent, and the next high-impact US release on the calendar is US job openings (JOLTS) on November 3. Between those prints, traders will be watching whether the euro can hold above its October 27 low — because a monthly close at $1.1160, barely above that low, leaves almost no cushion.

What to watch, and what not to over-read

Two cautions apply to the month-end numbers. First, a 1.51 percent monthly fall is a trend, not a collapse: the euro did not gap lower, it drifted, and drifts can reverse on a single strong data print. Second, the day's moves were modest — down 0.19 percent on October 30 — so the monthly figure is the accumulation of many small down days, not one dramatic session. That pattern argues for patience: November's direction will probably be decided by whether the pair defends 1.1115-1.1125, not by any single headline.

For traders and businesses watching EUR/USD, October's lesson is straightforward. The pair spent the month failing at 1.1215-1.1260, closing at $1.1160 with its second straight monthly loss, while the dollar index posted its second straight monthly gain. Until the euro reclaims those resistance levels, the burden of proof sits with the bulls — and the October 27 low is the line that decides whether this is a correction or something deeper.

FAQ

Where did EUR/USD close October?
At $1.1160 on October 30, down 0.19 percent on the day and down 1.51 percent for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Was that the month's low?
No. The pair hit a 52-week low of $1.1125 on October 27, its lowest since May 2025; the October 30 close stood 0.31 percent above that low.

Why did the euro fall in October?
The dollar kept a rate advantage — the Fed held at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent while the ECB held at 2.65 percent — and US third-quarter GDP grew 3.4 percent annualised, beating expectations of about 3.2 percent.

What are the key levels for November?
Support at 1.1115 and the 1.1125 October low; resistance at 1.1215 and 1.1260, with a broader zone at 1.12400 to 1.12800.

What data comes next?
US job openings (JOLTS) on November 3 — the next high-impact US release — after Germany's softer-than-expected October HICP print.

Read more market coverage at https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews and join the discussion at https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews — and see our earlier coverage of the euro's October moves on the site. This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.