Bitcoin Price Analysis: $77,049 Support Is the Line as BTC Tests Its 200-Day Average

### What happened
Bitcoin closed October 2026 testing the level that now defines its trend. Trading at about $77,154 on October 31, Bitcoin sat just 0.14% above immediate support at $77,049.56, nearly 39% below its all-time high of $126,080, with the 20-day simple moving average at $81,305.32 and the 50-day average at $81,887.88 both sitting well above the spot price — a clear downtrend on moving-average terms. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 34.22 showed significant selling pressure, though it had not yet reached deeply oversold territory, leaving room for further downside. This is not a quiet consolidation. It is a market sitting on a floor, with the next move decided by whether that floor holds.

### The levels that matter
Analysts converge on a tight cluster of levels, even when their methods differ. Immediate resistance sits at $77,425.43, only 0.35% above the October 31 price — a break above it would offer short-term relief, but the heavier resistance remains between $80,000 and $82,000, the zone Bitcoin was rejected from before the Binance-hack sell-off. On the downside, immediate support sits at $76,000–$76,500, which aligns with the 200-day moving average near $76,400–$76,600. ActionForex analysis put the same zone in Fibonacci terms: strong support from the 100-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the $57,673–$87,385 range at $76,167–$76,035, with the daily Ichimoku cloud base near $74,900 and the 200-day moving average at $73,130 as deeper levels. If sellers push through $76,000–$76,500, the next downside targets are approximately $74,000 and $72,000, with the $70,000 psychological level further below. A daily close beneath the 200-day average would strengthen the bearish case; a hold keeps the $75,000 retest as a floor test and nothing more.

### On-chain levels tell the same story
On-chain valuation models point to the same neighbourhood. Glassnode data cited on October 31 put Bitcoin's True Market Mean — the estimated average acquisition price of economically active investors — at $77,900, with Bitcoin trading around $77,141 after falling below it. The short-term holder cost basis at $75,800 is the next support in focus if selling pressure increases, sitting slightly below the 100-period moving average at $76,242, which makes the area doubly protected for bulls on that view. Above, the U.S. spot ETF cost basis at $81,500 and the Active Investor Price at $85,300 mark the levels a recovery must reclaim, while the realized price at $54,100 and long-term holder cost basis at $49,100 sit far below as structural floors. Bitcoin had already fallen below the ETF cost basis of $81,500 before testing the True Market Mean — a reminder that even institutional buyers from earlier in the year are now underwater on average.

### The rest of the market is weaker
Bitcoin is not falling alone, and the majors look worse on their own charts. Ether traded near $2,222.59 after dropping below $2,300 and breaking under longer-term moving averages between $2,300 and $2,360. BNB reversed sharply to around $696.43 after failing to hold above the $750 resistance zone, slipping under its 100-day moving average at $707, with $680 as the next support and a daily close under its long-term average at $690 as the trigger. XRP traded around $1.2352 after losing key support near $1.30, below its 200-day moving average near $1.36–$1.37, with nearest support at $1.20–$1.22 and first resistance at $1.28–$1.30. The pattern is consistent: majors broke their own supports first, then Bitcoin followed, which is why a Bitcoin recovery alone would not confirm a broad market turn — traders want to see Ether reclaim $2,300 and BNB reclaim $707 alongside it.

### Liquidations and the Binance overhang
The sell-off was accelerated by forced selling. One report put leveraged liquidations at $1.49 billion in 24 hours, with Bitcoin positions accounting for $475 million, after Bitcoin fell to $76,301 during October 30 trading before recovering. The Binance hack — roughly $6.3 billion taken on October 29, the largest crypto theft on record — coincided with the decline, though the sell-off had begun before the first wallet alerts appeared. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $17.2 million on October 29, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for $12.8 million, while Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust posted a $15.3 million outflow — a single positive day that does not demonstrate a durable reversal. For the near term, one report identified $76,600 as support and $79,107 as a level that would help confirm a recovery. Bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss and to end October in red after three straight months of gains, with a bearish engulfing signal developing on the monthly chart.

### Scenarios, not predictions
For bulls, the path is narrow but clear: hold $77,049, reclaim $77,425, then push above the 20-day exponential moving average at $80,928.77 and the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, and challenge the 90-day period high of $86,594.94. FXEmpire's scenario work names $85,000 as the recovery target if $75,000 holds. For bears, a decisive break below $77,049.56, especially on continued high volume, opens the door to $75,000, then the $72,000–$65,000 zone flagged in the same scenario work, with the 90-day period low of $62,836.66 as a deeper reference. Upticks should be limited and ideally capped under $79,200, guarding the pivotal $80,000 barrier, to keep the bearish structure intact. These are technical levels, not guarantees, and they are not a recommendation to buy or sell — they are the map traders are using while the market decides whether $77,000 is a floor or a ledge.

### FAQ
**What is Bitcoin's key support right now?** Immediate support at $77,049.56, with the $76,000–$76,500 zone and the 200-day moving average near $76,400–$76,600 just below it.
**What resistance must Bitcoin reclaim?** Immediate resistance at $77,425.43, then $78,000, then the heavier $80,000–$82,000 zone and the 20-day moving average at $81,305.32.
**What does an RSI of 34 mean?** The 14-day RSI at 34.22 signals significant selling pressure, but not yet deeply oversold territory — sellers have momentum, but an oversold bounce signal has not triggered.
**What is the short-term holder cost basis?** About $75,800, the average acquisition price of coins moved on-chain in the past 155 days, and the next on-chain support below the True Market Mean of $77,900.
**Are Ether, BNB and XRP also weak?** Yes. Ether near $2,222 is below $2,300, BNB near $696 is below its $707 100-day average, and XRP near $1.235 is below its $1.36–$1.37 200-day average.

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This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.