Apple Reports Monday: $113 Billion in Sales Expected as Memory Costs Test the Margin Story
The setup: a record quarter, a harder question
Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the US close on Monday, November 2, 2026, covering the quarter ended in September, with the earnings call at 5 p.m. Eastern. The headline expectations are large: analysts expect revenue of about $113.3 billion and earnings per share of about $1.99. That would be roughly 10.6% revenue growth on the year-ago quarter's $102.5 billion, sitting near the top of Apple's own guidance for 9–11% revenue growth. The quarter itself is largely spoken for — the market will trade what comes next, not what already happened.
What the guide says — and what could break it
Apple previously guided to a gross margin of 47–48% for the September quarter, including about one percentage point of tariff refunds; stripping those refunds out, the underlying margin guide is roughly 46–47%, against 48.1% in the June quarter. The pressure has a name: memory. Flash-memory prices rose through March, June and again in September, driven in part by AI-related demand, and analysts warn that component costs will squeeze margins from here. Inventory tells the same story of a company stocking up: it rose from $5.72 billion to $11.09 billion over nine months, a carry-in benefit Apple itself says fades after September. The June quarter remains the benchmark — about $109.4 billion of revenue and $2.02 of earnings per share — but part of that profit came from tariff refunds, worth about 11 cents of EPS and two points of margin, so the clean comparison is tougher than the headline suggests.
iPhone, Services and the December guide
The September quarter should show iPhone strength: previews put iPhone revenue growth in the mid-teens on last year's $49.0 billion, with Services growing at a similar pace to the June quarter's $28.75 billion on an FX-adjusted basis. The iPhone Duo, launched in October with reports of sellouts and backorders into 2027, falls into the following quarter — which is why the December-quarter outlook matters more than the September print. Management previously signalled double-digit iPhone growth for the holiday quarter and overall revenue growth of 10–12% in earlier commentary, and the new guide will be read as the first real test of whether Duo demand can convert into shipped units despite component shortages. Apple shares closed at $347.10 on October 27, near their all-time high of $351.73 from two sessions earlier, and up more than 27% since the start of 2026 — a stock trading near 40 times earnings leaves little room for a guidance disappointment.
What to watch on the call
Three numbers decide the reaction. First, the December-quarter revenue guide: anything short of the high single digits would undercut the Duo story. Second, the margin guide: how far memory costs pull it below the September quarter's 47–48%. Third, Services and iPhone detail — whether Services holds its growth pace and whether iPhone supply, not demand, is the binding constraint. A beat on September numbers alone will not be enough; at this valuation, Apple has to prove the next quarter too.
FAQ
When does Apple report? After the US close on Monday, November 2, 2026, for the fiscal fourth quarter ended in September, with the call at 5 p.m. Eastern.
What do analysts expect? Revenue of about $113.3 billion and EPS of about $1.99, versus $102.5 billion a year earlier — roughly 10.6% growth.
What margin is guided? 47–48% gross margin including about one point of tariff refunds, or roughly 46–47% underlying, versus 48.1% in the June quarter.
Why are memory costs the key risk? Flash-memory prices rose through 2026 on AI demand, squeezing margins, while inventory doubled to $11.09 billion over nine months.
What matters more than the September print? The December-quarter guide — whether iPhone Duo demand converts into shipments and whether margins hold.
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This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.
