Oil Slides Below $100 as Iran Talks Ease Gulf Fears, While Gold and Silver Jump

Diplomacy moves oil first

Oil fell sharply on Monday, November 2, as signs of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran gave traders their first real reason in weeks to price in an end to the Gulf disruption rather than more of it. Brent crude declined about 3.3% to $109.70 a barrel in one morning read, and about 3.8% to just above $109 in another, while US crude dropped about 3.4% to $100.58 — and by mid-morning US crude had slipped below $100, down about 4.5%, with Brent at $106.75, down 5.9% from Friday's settlement at 8:48 AM ET. The trigger was reporting that President Trump prefers negotiations over further military action after the US midterms, with indirect US–Iran talks grinding on in Doha and Tehran proposing a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Prices move fast on this story and the exact levels shifted through the morning, so treat these as Monday-morning readings, not closes — but the direction was consistent across every read: oil down, and down hard, on diplomacy hopes.

Why the fall still has a floor

The drop does not mean the Gulf risk premium has vanished. Attacks on tankers have kept supply risks elevated, and ADNOC's chief executive warned at a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that the disruption has already drained close to a billion barrels from global inventories. That is why even Goldman Sachs, while watching prices fall, has just raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, citing Middle East supply risks — the bank does not see oil going back to where it was before the disruption. The market's question for the rest of the week is practical, not political: whether tankers actually start moving freely through Hormuz. If they do, the premium can keep unwinding; if talks stall or another tanker incident lands, the same premium can rebuild in a day. Oil's Monday move is therefore best read as a relief trade with an expiry date, not a verdict on where crude settles.

Gold and silver take the other side

While oil fell, precious metals jumped — the other side of the same risk trade unwinding. Gold recovered about 0.9% to $3,911 an ounce in one morning read, and spot gold reached $3,943.37 at 8:45 AM ET, up $67.72 or 1.75% from Friday's close of $3,875.65, after Friday's session had seen gold fall $144.92. Silver rose even faster: up 4.0% to $51.11, closing above $51, with the gold/silver ratio falling to 77.2 from 78.9. Early Asian trade had already pointed this way, with COMEX gold futures up 0.53% to $3,919.70 and silver futures up 1.28% to $49.905, after both metals recorded sharp losses last week — December COMEX gold lost nearly 3% on the week to settle at $3,898.90, and silver fell around 9% to $49.27. One useful context for readers: gold and silver had been liquidated toward the end of last week alongside the selloff in global technology stocks, and crude has shared a strong negative correlation with bullion over the past six to eight months — when oil spikes on war risk, gold often falls with risk appetite, and when oil eases on diplomacy, metals can recover. Monday showed both legs of that relationship at once.

FAQ

How far did oil fall Monday? Brent fell about 3–6% depending on the morning read (to around $106.75–$110), and US crude slipped below $100, down about 3.4–4.5%.

Why did oil fall? Hopes for US–Iran talks in Doha, including a reported plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and signals the US prefers negotiations after the midterms.

How much did gold and silver rise? Spot gold reached $3,943.37 at 8:45 AM ET, up 1.75% from Friday's $3,875.65 close; silver rose 4.0% to $51.11.

Did Goldman Sachs turn bearish on oil? No — it raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90, citing Middle East supply risks.

Is the Gulf risk gone? No — tanker attacks continue, and ADNOC's chief said the disruption has drained close to a billion barrels from inventories.

For related reading, see the contango and backwardation guide in the Commodities category at https://zimbuck.com/blogs/793/What-Are-Contango-and-Backwardation-How-Futures-Curves-Work and the external source at https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/morning-brew/morning-brew-november-2-2026-02112026

Read more on Zimbuck at https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews and join the discussion at https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews — and join Zimbuck at https://zimbuck.com to follow more commodities news.

This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.