Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000 but Sits Below Every Key Moving Average as ETF Outflows Hit $643 Million

Bitcoin steadied near $78,000 on Monday, November 2, after one of the most violent weeks in crypto history — and the calm on the surface hides a technically weak structure underneath. Early readings put Bitcoin at about $77,567 to $78,207, up only a fraction on the day after briefly touching $78,700 in Asian trading and $78,878, its best level since the October 29 Binance hack. Ether traded around $2,276 to $2,296, up roughly 0.5–1.5%, while the CoinDesk Memecoin Index fell 1.9%. The bounce matters, but so does what it has not done: it has not reclaimed any of the levels traders watch most closely, and it arrived on the same day US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their heaviest selling in months. A market that holds its ground without regaining its trend lines is stabilising, not reversing — and the difference between those two words is where the next move will be decided.

Every average overhead

The technical picture on November 2 was unusually one-sided. Bitcoin traded below its 7-day simple moving average at $78,822, its 20-day average at $80,688, and its 50-day average at $82,009, as well as its 12-period exponential average at $79,465 and 26-period average at $80,599. In plain terms, every short- and medium-term trend line sat above the price — each one is now a ceiling the market must break through, not a floor it can lean on. The session itself was narrow: a 24-hour range of $77,620 to $78,878, a gain of just 0.26%, on Binance spot volume of about $596.8 million, leaving price just below its daily pivot of $78,235. Momentum agreed with the averages rather than contradicting them: the 14-period RSI sat at 38.94, below the neutral 50 but not yet at the conventional oversold floor of 30, and Bollinger Band %B at 0.1611 pointed the same soft way. The one structural counterweight is the longer term: the 200-day average at $73,212 sits roughly $5,000 below current prices, so the long-term floor is intact even while every shorter trend points down.

7-day average: $78,822 — overhead

20-day average: $80,688 — overhead

50-day average: $82,009 — overhead

200-day average: $73,212 — the intact longer-term floor, about $5,000 below price

Nearest supports if the hold fails: $77,592, then $76,977

ETFs sold $643 million on Friday — the largest daily outflow since June

The institutional side of the story was harsher than the spot price suggested. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million on Friday, their largest daily outflow since June, according to Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk — erasing four days of inflows in a single session. That matters because ETF flows have been the main institutional channel into Bitcoin all year: when they reverse this hard, it signals that professional holders, not just leveraged traders, were reducing exposure into the weekend. Derivatives told a similar story of caution rather than panic. Crypto futures volume jumped 56% in 24 hours to $111.8 billion, but open interest barely moved, holding near $137.1 billion — volume without new open interest means traders were closing and repositioning, not adding fresh conviction. On Deribit, the three most traded Bitcoin options in the last 24 hours were all puts, led by the $58,000 put expiring November 27 — far below spot, but a clear sign of where hedgers were paying for protection. Binance futures positioning leaned long, with 67.3% of tracked accounts long against 32.7% short, yet taker selling dominated execution — long positioning with selling execution is a market waiting for a reason, not one driving one.

What actually decides the next move

Three catalysts arrive before the week is out, and each one can break this stalemate in either direction. First, the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats at stake — regulation, and therefore crypto's policy backdrop, is part of what voters are deciding. Second, Apple's earnings after Monday's close, the single most-watched report of a week that also includes AMD, Qualcomm and others, in a market still nursing Friday's tech selloff. Third, the October jobs report on Friday, November 6, with economists expecting nonfarm payrolls up 55,000 after September's weak 29,000. For Bitcoin specifically, the levels are now clean: reclaim $78,235 and then $78,822 and the short-term picture starts to repair; lose $77,592 and the next test is $76,977, with the $73,212 200-day average as the deeper floor. None of that is a forecast — it is the map the market itself has drawn, and the week's news will decide which road it takes.

FAQ

Why does trading below every moving average matter? Each average is a trend line; when price sits below all of them, every recent trend points down, and each average becomes resistance to reclaim rather than support to hold.

What is the one longer-term support still holding? The 200-day average at $73,212, roughly $5,000 below current prices.

How big was Friday's ETF outflow? $643 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the largest daily outflow since June, erasing four days of inflows.

What are options traders hedging? Puts led Deribit trading, headed by the $58,000 put expiring November 27 — protection far below spot, not a price target.

What comes next this week? Midterms Tuesday, Apple earnings Monday after the close, and the October jobs report Friday (55,000 expected).

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Related reading on the site: Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000 After a Brutal Week — Saylor Calls the Next Bull Market as the Whitepaper Turns 18, https://zimbuck.com/blogs/690/Bitcoin-Holds-Near-78-000-After-a-Brutal-Week-Saylor .

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External source for this news blog: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/02/bitcoin-eases-to-usd77-900-as-binance-customers-pull-usd3-6-billion-after-withdrawals-reopen .

This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice.