Midterm Tuesday's Real Market Test: JOLTS Job Openings, Factory Orders — and an RBA Hike to an 18-Year High

Americans voted in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3 — but for markets, the day's hard numbers arrived first: September job openings, factory orders and durable goods, all due at 10:00 a.m. ET, while Australia's central bank had already raised rates to an 18-year high overnight

Election day always dominates the headlines, and this one is no exception: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, with control of Congress — and therefore the path for spending, borrowing and tax policy — at stake. But traders know that elections move expectations while data moves pricing, and Tuesday packed both into a single session. The calendar's centrepiece is the September JOLTS job openings report, due at 10:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. Pakistan time), alongside factory orders and final durable goods orders at the same hour. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, in a split vote, while signalling a wait-and-see approach afterwards. Turkey's annual CPI inflation printed at 29.77% in October, above the 29.5% expected and the previous 29.73%. Put together, Tuesday is a global test of the same question: is the labour market cooling gently, or is something sharper under way — and will central banks keep tightening into it?

1. JOLTS: what the forecast says, and why quits matter more than openings

The consensus forecast for September job openings is 7.164 million, against 7.079 million previously — a small rise, not a surge. Related measures in the same report are expected near 3.096 million quits (from 3.066 million) and about 1.66 million layoffs (from 1.64 million). Those three numbers together describe a labour market that is neither booming nor breaking: openings roughly steady, workers still willing to quit for better jobs, layoffs contained. That matters because JOLTS is the only major release that shows labour demand directly — payrolls show how many jobs were filled, JOLTS shows how many employers are still trying to fill. Several analysts flag quits as the number to watch most closely: confident workers quit more, and quits tend to lead wage growth, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve watches when it judges inflation risk. The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, in a 10–2 vote with two officials wanting a hike, and money markets price roughly a 74% probability of a December rate rise. A JOLTS print well above forecast would feed that hawkish case; a print below 7.0 million with rising layoffs would be the one data point before Friday's jobs report capable of pulling December pricing lower. Friday is the bigger event — October payrolls are expected at roughly 55,000–65,000 (against 29,000 in September), with unemployment steady at 4.2% — but Tuesday's openings report sets the tone for how Friday will be read.

2. Factory orders, durable goods — and the manufacturing cross-check

At the same 10:00 a.m. ET hour, factory orders for September are forecast to rise 1.2% month over month, against just 0.1% previously, with factory orders excluding transportation forecast at +0.5% (from +0.3%). Revised durable goods orders are forecast at +1.8%, unchanged from the preliminary reading, with capital goods orders excluding defence and aircraft also at +0.5%. Read alongside Monday's data — October ISM Manufacturing at 55.5, above September's 54.5 — the factory numbers test whether the manufacturing rebound is real or a single-month blip. If orders confirm the ISM strength, the "economy still expanding" case gains ground: third-quarter GDP already grew 3.4% annualized, above the 3.2% forecast, while core PCE inflation held at 3.1% year over year. That combination — solid growth, sticky inflation, a labour market that is cooling only slowly — is precisely why the Fed's hawks have the argument right now, and why every labour release this week carries outsized weight. A soft factory print would not overturn the growth story on its own, but it would complicate it, and markets heading into an election night do not need extra complications.

3. The overnight moves: Australia hikes, Turkey's inflation ticks up, oil whipsaws

Australia set the tone before US markets opened. The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% from 4.60%, an 18-year high, in a split vote, after September CPI came in at 4.3% year over year with the trimmed mean rising 1.0% in the third quarter alone — yet Governor Michele Bullock signalled a wait-and-see approach, and Asian stocks still fell as the US chip sell-off deepened, with South Korea's Kospi sliding more than 3%. Turkey's inflation, at 29.77%, came in above both expectations and the prior reading — a reminder that disinflation is uneven even where headline rates are far higher than in the US. Oil added its own volatility: Brent fell 7.6% on Monday to about $104.77 on peace hopes, then rose about 2% as reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island emerged. For readers in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, the transmission is familiar: US data and Fed expectations move the dollar, the dollar moves import prices and local currencies, and central-bank moves elsewhere — Sydney, Ankara, London, where the Bank of England is also expected to hike — show how synchronised the tightening debate has become. Tuesday's lesson, before a single midterm result is counted, is that the economy does not pause for elections: jobs, orders and rates keep printing, and the market keeps repricing on each one.

FAQ

What is JOLTS? The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — the US report showing job openings, hires, quits and layoffs. September's openings are forecast at 7.164 million.

When is the JOLTS report due on November 3? 10:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p.m. Pakistan time), alongside factory orders and final durable goods orders.

What are factory orders forecast to show? A 1.2% month-over-month rise in September, against 0.1% previously; durable goods orders are forecast at +1.8%.

What did Australia's central bank do? The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, in a split vote, while signalling a wait-and-see approach afterwards.

When is the October jobs report? Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET — consensus roughly 55,000–65,000 new jobs, unemployment steady at 4.2%.

Why does all this matter for crypto and stocks? Strong labour and factory data feed December Fed hike expectations (about 74% priced), which lift bond yields and pressure risk assets; soft data does the opposite.

Our jobs-report reading guide is here: https://zimbuck.com/blogs/955/How-to-Read-the-US-Jobs-Report-Before-Friday-s — and the Zimbuck News page is here: https://zimbuck.com/pages/zimbucknews with discussion at https://zimbuck.com/groups/zimbuckmarketnews . Tuesday's economic calendar as previewed is here: https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/economic-calendar-us-midterms-jolts-and-factory-orders-take-center-stage-03-11-2026 . This is market news and general information only, not financial advice. Join Zimbuck at https://zimbuck.com to follow more economic news.