Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Tests $75,000 as the 200-Day Average Becomes the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin slipped below $75,000 on Friday, November 6, for the first time since August, and the chart now tells the story more clearly than any headline. After a week that began above $80,700, BTC traded down to an intraday low of $74,888 before steadying near $75,854, while Ethereum fell to around $2,230. The question traders are asking is not whether Bitcoin fell — it is whether the 200-day moving average near $73,239 holds, or whether the sell-off has further to run.

The levels that matter now

Technical traders are watching a tight cluster of levels that will decide the next move:

• $74,888 — Friday's intraday low, the first support buyers defended.
• $75,552 — the 50-week moving average, which Bitcoin is fighting to hold after sitting on it all week.
• $75,000 — the big psychological round number, broken for the first time since August.
• $76,475 — the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), now overhead after buyers lost it.
• $77,740 — the 100-day EMA, the next resistance if buyers reclaim ground.
• $73,239 — the 200-day moving average, the level analysts flag as the next test if $74,888 breaks.
• $79,640–$79,984 — the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the ceiling for any short-term recovery.

The 14-day RSI sits at 43.28, below the 50 midline — weak, but not yet at the deeply oversold readings that marked past capitulation bottoms. Polymarket's median forecast for November 7 puts BTC near $75,978, with half of outcomes falling between $74,981 and $77,037. In other words, the market itself expects a narrow, choppy range rather than a sharp snapback — a view that matches the base case of sideways trade between $74,000 and $77,500 sketched by analysts on Friday morning.

What pushed Bitcoin down: jobs, ETFs and liquidations

Three forces hit at once. First, the macro shock: the US added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the roughly 65,000 economists expected, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month. A hot jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher and lifted the odds of a December Fed rate hike to around 70% — bad news for risk assets, and Bitcoin felt it within minutes.

Second, the ETF flows turned sharply negative. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded combined net outflows of about $530 million in the November 5 session alone, and Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $430 million in outflows on Thursday, taking the week's total to nearly $870 million. Outflows have now accelerated from October's $515 million, and at the current pace November would end with roughly $3.48 billion in outflows — still below June's $4.51 billion monthly peak, but a clear institutional retreat.

Third, leverage flushed out. Roughly $250 million in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours, total crypto liquidations reached nearly $710 million, and Thursday's tally topped $1 billion, with almost all of it longs. Each wave of forced selling pushed price into the next cluster of stop-losses, which is how a 5% weekly slide turns into a test of the 200-day average.

Bull case vs bear case at $75,000

The bull case starts with the fact that every dip toward the 200-day average has been bought so far — buyers absorbed a fourth dip toward that baseline since the sell-off below $80,000, and Friday's low at $74,888 was bought back within hours. Leverage has been flushed: open interest fell 5.4% and more than $1.1 billion in longs were liquidated earlier in the week, which removes the fuel for another cascade. The Nasdaq also bounced 1.1% on Friday, and if equities stabilise, Bitcoin's correlation with tech gives it a tailwind. A reclaim of the 100-day EMA at $77,740 would put the $79,000–$80,000 zone back in play.

The bear case is that the trend has broken. Bitcoin is down 13% so far in 2026 and trades well below its October 2025 record near $126,200. ETF outflows are accelerating, not slowing. A sustained break below $74,888 opens the 200-day moving average at $73,239, and below that there is little chart structure until the low-$70,000s. The Democratic sweep in this week's US midterm elections also adds a layer of political uncertainty, with analysts expecting greater oversight of crypto under the new Congress — and the CLARITY Act, which would set federal rules for crypto trading, has been stalled since a Senate procedural vote fell short in September.

How to read this chart like a trader

If you are learning technical analysis, this week is a textbook case. Our guide to reading a Bitcoin chart explains support, resistance and moving averages in plain language, and our explainer on the RSI covers why a 43 reading means weak momentum without yet signalling capitulation. Three practical habits apply right now: watch the daily close, not the intraday wick — a close below $74,888 matters far more than a dip below it; treat the 200-day average as the line in the sand, because losing it on a closing basis has preceded deeper corrections in past cycles; and remember that ETF flows are the new volume — sustained outflows above $400 million a day have coincided with every leg down this week.

What to watch next

The next data point is the US Consumer Price Index, due in the second week of November — a hot CPI reading would strengthen the case for a December hike and pressure Bitcoin further, while a soft one could give buyers the excuse to reclaim $77,740. Watch the ETF flow numbers each morning, watch whether Friday's low holds on a daily close, and watch Ethereum: ETH near $2,230 is sitting on its own key levels, and a break there would confirm broad risk-off rather than a Bitcoin-only move. The jobs-report fallout is covered in detail in Crypto-Economy's report on Bitcoin and Ethereum after the jobs data. For daily coverage of the levels that matter, follow the Zimbuck News page and the discussion in the Zimbuck Market News group.

FAQ

What is Bitcoin's key support level right now? Friday's intraday low of $74,888, with the 200-day moving average at $73,239 as the next major support if that level breaks on a daily close.

Why did Bitcoin fall below $75,000? A hot US jobs report (+165,000 jobs vs ~65,000 expected) lifted Fed hike odds, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows (over $430 million on Thursday), and nearly $710 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours.

What does an RSI of 43 mean for Bitcoin? The 14-day RSI at 43.28 is below the neutral 50 line, signalling weak momentum, but it is not yet at deeply oversold levels that typically mark capitulation bottoms.

What would change the outlook? A daily close back above the 100-day EMA at $77,740, slowing ETF outflows, or a soft US CPI reading in the second week of November would all shift the picture toward buyers.

This article is market news and general information only, not financial advice. Prices move fast and technical levels can break — do your own research before acting. Join the conversation on Zimbuck, the finance social platform for traders and investors.